agree that a war involving even utter defeat would be by no means the unmixed evil it is supposed to be. But we have no confidence in the result of a war with France. They would be sure to exact a heavy indemnity with, possibly, certain territorial concessions, and probably we should have some new stipulation regarding Roman Catholic converts and the powers of bishops. But we doubt if they would trouble themselves much about concessions to trade or further freedom of intercourse, judging, as they would probably do, and rightly too, that the benefits would not go into their pockets. They would probably say: 'though we have had to put our hands in the fire we shan't pull out any chestnuts for you.'
Still, all things considered, we incline to think that a war followed by a speedy settlement is perhaps the best thing that can happen. The only danger is the indirect results on China. The Empire holds together at present, with so little coherence that it is possible the shock of a foreign conflict might break up the mass altogether. Bad as the present Government is, the chaos which would ensue would be ten times worse. Another period of civil war would leave the country a barren wilderness. If there were any prominent candidate for the Throne who could command the suffrages and confidence of any considerable portion of the Empire, the expulsion of the Manchus might be looked for with certainty, with the hope of a considerable improvement in the system of government in the near future. But we know of no such candidate. Li Hung Chang is much too old to attempt anything of the kind now. Besides, he has had many chances and has never shown the least symptom of disloyalty. There is no other prominent official we know of who would have the least chance of success. So the best thing to wish for is that the present Government may be retained and improved. If a war did not upset it, we think it would in all probability improve it. It would show the Chinese that their trust in big guns and forts is vain and hopeless, and that China is and must be for a long time a third-rate Power in the world. If she frankly accepts this position, and endeavours to improve in the only true path of progress, that is by furthering the material wealth of her people by all the aids of modern science, she may in time hope to obtain a better place in the scale of nations.
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agree that a war involving even utter defeat would be by no means the unmixed evil it is supposed to be. But we have no confidence in the result of a war with France. They would be sure to exact a heavy indemnity with, possibly, certain territorial concessions, and probably we should have some new stipulation re- garding Roman Catholic converts and the powers of bishops. But we doubt if they would trouble themselves much about concessions to trade or further free- dom ofintercourse, judging, asthey would probably do, and rightly too, that the benefits would zot go into their pockets. They would probably say: though we have had to put our hands in the fire we shan't pull out any chestnuts for you.'
Still, all things considered, we incline to think that a war followed by a speedy settlement is perhaps the best thing that can happen. The only danger is the in- direct results on China. The Empire holds together at present, with so little cole- rence that it is possible the shock of a foreign conflict might break up the mass altogether. Bad as the present Gov- ernment is, the chaos which would ensue would he ten times worse, Another period of civil war would leave the
country a bowling wilderness. If there were any prominent candidate for the Throne who could command the suffrages and confidence of any considerable por- tion of the Empire, the expulsion of the Manchus might be looked for with cer- tainty, with the hope of a considerable. improvement in the system of govern ment in the near future. But we know of no such candidate. Li Hung Chang is much too old to attempt anything of the kind now. Besides he has had many chances and has never shown the least symptom of disloyalty. There is no other prominent official we know of who would have the least chance of suc- cess. So the best thing to wish for is that the present Government may be re- tained and improved. If a war did not upset it we think it would in all. probability improve it. It would show the Chinese that their trust in big guns and forts is vain and hopeless, and that China is and must be for a long time a third-rate Power in the world." If she frankly accepts this position, and endea- vours to improve in the only trus path of progress, that is by furthering the material wealth of her people by all the aids of modern science, she may in time hope to obtain a better place in the scale of
nations.
518
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